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A systemic risk assessment methodological framework for the global polycrisis.

Ajay Gambhir1,2, Michael J Albert3, Sylvanus S P Doe4

  • 1Accelerator for Systemic Risk Assessment (ASRA), Washington, DC, USA. agambhir@asranetwork.org.

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Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

Human societies face escalating systemic risks from interconnected global challenges. This study proposes a new framework for assessing these polycrisis risks, enhancing our response strategies.

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Area of Science:

  • Environmental science
  • Sociology
  • Political economy

Background:

  • Human societies and ecological systems confront severe risks due to planetary boundary transgressions, inequality, geopolitical instability, and technological advancements.
  • These interconnected risks can amplify each other, leading to systemic risks that necessitate thorough assessment and response.
  • Existing analytical frameworks for systemic risk assessment are evolving, with new tools and models emerging for system analysis and simulation.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To propose a methodological framework for assessing systemic risks within a polycrisis context.
  • To build upon and integrate existing approaches for systemic risk analysis.
  • To address the unique challenges posed by interconnected global crises.

Main Methods:

  • Assessing two recent global food and energy systemic crises.
  • Developing a methodological framework incorporating polycrisis-specific features.
  • Drawing from and building upon existing analytical frameworks and tools.

Main Results:

  • A novel methodological framework for assessing systemic risks in a polycrisis context.
  • The framework includes features such as exploring system architectures, political economy, and transformational responses.
  • Cross-cutting practices emphasize non-human life, trans-disciplinarity, diversity, transparency, and uncertainty communication.

Conclusions:

  • The proposed framework offers a structured approach to understanding and responding to complex, interconnected systemic risks.
  • It highlights the importance of considering system objectives, political economy, and transformational pathways.
  • Integrating diverse perspectives and transparently communicating uncertainty are crucial for effective risk management in a polycrisis.