Early-stage health technology assessment of a curative gene therapy for multiple sclerosis

Multiple sclerosis (MS) is associated with significant early morbidity, reduced life expectancy and substantial healthcare and societal costs. The primary objective of this study is to assess the early cost-effectiveness potential of a novel gene therapy, IMMUTOL, for MS compared with current high-efficacy treatment sequences. The secondary objective is to explore value-based pricing thresholds in line with Dutch health economic guidelines.

Using the ErasmusMC/iMTA MS microsimulation model, we compared IMMUTOL gene therapy against various high-efficacy and escalation-based disease-modifying therapy sequences. Analyses considered a lifetime horizon, societal and healthcare perspectives, and uncertainty through probabilistic sensitivity analysis. The IMMUTOL gene therapy scenarios varied in efficacy parameters (relapse and disability reduction) and adverse event profiles. Cost assumptions incorporated projected market dynamics, including future price reductions due to generics and biosimilars.

IMMUTOL gene therapy demonstrated dominance (higher quality-adjusted life years, lower costs) at price points ≤€200 000 and remained cost-effective at €500 000 under realistic clinical scenarios (incremental cost-effectiveness ratio €26 570-€40 615/quality-adjusted life year). Its cost-effectiveness threshold depended on sustained reductions in relapse rates and disability progression (incidence rate ratio ≤0.2, relative risk ≤0.1). Indirect societal costs improved gene therapy's economic attractiveness.

IMMUTOL gene therapy shows promising cost-effectiveness at a value-based price up to approximately €500 000, contingent on achieving curative clinical efficacy. These findings inform strategic development and pricing considerations for emerging gene therapies in MS.