Emergency Care Interventions for Victims of Explosive Ordnance Reduce Mortality: A Modeling Study

Modern conflicts are characterized by wide-spread use of conventional explosive ordnance (EO), improvised explosive devices (IEDs), and other air-launched explosives. In contrast to advances in military medicine and high-income civilian trauma systems since the United States-led wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, the mortality rate among civilian EO casualties has not decreased in decades. Although humanitarian mine action (HMA) stakeholders have extensive presence and medical capabilities in EO-affected settings, coordination between HMA and health actors has not been leveraged systematically.

Data from a prior systematic review of emergency care interventions feasible within the context of HMA activities and low-resource health care systems were used to model mortality reduction among EO victims. Interventions were categorized using the World Health Organization (WHO) Emergency Care System Framework sites of "scene," "transport," and "facility." The cumulative impact of the interventions on EO-related mortality was estimated using pooled effect estimates and simulation modeling.

The meta-analysis included 16 reports from 13 countries, representing 127,505 injured persons. Pooled effect estimates across subcategories of emergency care interventions were 0.42 for layperson transportation (95%CI, 0.24-0.74), 0.79 for prehospital notification systems (95%CI, 0.51-1.19), 0.52 for prehospital trauma care training courses (95%CI, 0.46-0.59), 0.67 for facility-based trauma care training courses (95%CI, 0.48-0.92), and 0.66 for facility-based trauma team organization and activation protocols (95%CI, 0.45-0.97). A 68% reduction in mortality (95%UI, 57%-79%) was observed when implementing the full set of interventions in a region with no prior implemented interventions.

Enhanced coordination between HMA and health actors to implement a structured set of emergency care interventions holds potential to significantly reduce preventable death among civilian EO casualties.