A Comprehensive Analysis and Forecast of Rabies Epidemic and Elimination Challenges - China, 2005-2023

Area of Science:

• Epidemiology
• Veterinary Public Health
• Infectious Disease Control

Background:

• The World Health Organization (WHO) has set a 2030 target for eliminating dog-mediated human rabies globally.
• China faces significant hurdles in achieving this ambitious public health objective.
• Understanding past trends and future projections is vital for effective rabies control.

Purpose of the Study:

• To analyze epidemiological trends of human rabies in China from 2005 to 2023.
• To forecast future human rabies case numbers using statistical modeling.
• To compare China's progress with international rabies elimination strategies.

Main Methods:

• Descriptive statistics were used to examine the spatiotemporal distribution of human rabies cases.
• The Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) model was employed for case forecasting.
• Model selection was based on the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC).

Main Results:

• A total of 24,566 human rabies cases were reported in China between 2005 and 2023.
• Rabies prevalence shifted from southeastern to northwestern regions over the study period.
• The SARIMA model forecasts 65 cases by 2025, exceeding international benchmarks for elimination phases.

Conclusions:

• Achieving the 2030 rabies elimination goal requires immediate and comprehensive action.
• A large-scale dog vaccination strategy is identified as essential for success.
• Targeted interventions are needed to address regional variations and resurgent cases.