Global and local origins of trial-to-trial spike count variability in visual cortex

Sensory neuron spiking responses vary across repeated presentations of the same stimuli, but whether this trial-to-trial variability represents noise versus unidentified signals remains unresolved. Some of the variability can be attributed to correlations between neural activity and arousal, locomotion, and other overt movements. We hypothesized that correlations with global activity factors, i.e., patterns of neural activity observable in other brain regions, may explain additional variability in spike count responses of visual cortical neurons. To test this, we used Neuropixels 2.0 probes to record neural activity in mouse primary visual cortex (V1) while subjects passively viewed images. We recorded videos of behavior alongside neural activity from other brain regions, either spiking activity of neural populations in anterior cingulate area (ACA) or widefield calcium signals from across the dorsal cortex. We then used a model based on reduced rank regression to partition the explainable variability of visual cortical responses by source. Some of the trial-to-trial variability in V1 spike counts was attributable to locally shared patterns of activity uncorrelated with either behavior or global activity patterns. Locally shared activity patterns explained trial-to-trial variability that was in excess of Poisson spike generation. Of the parts of variability attributable to non-local sources, global cortical activity predicted significantly more V1 spike count variability than behavioral factors. Additionally, behavioral factors explained little variability uniquely and comprised a geometric subspace of the globally predictable V1 activity. Finally, optogenetically perturbing ACA directly impacted V1 activity, and ACA activity patterns predicted V1 spike count variability even on trials without overt behaviors. Our data indicate that globally shared factors from other cortical areas contribute substantially to shared spike count variability in V1, with only a minority of shared variability confined to local V1 circuits.