Estimating Chronic Hepatitis B Prevalence and Undiagnosed Proportion in Canada, 2007-2021: Mathematical Framework...

Area of Science:

• Epidemiology
• Public Health
• Mathematical Modeling

Background:

• Chronic hepatitis B (CHB) poses a significant health challenge in Canada, affecting a substantial portion of the population.
• The silent, often asymptomatic nature of CHB complicates public health interventions and the goal of elimination by 2030.

Purpose of the Study:

• To develop and apply a novel framework for estimating the national prevalence of CHB in Canada.
• To quantify the proportion of the CHB-infected population that remains undiagnosed.

Main Methods:

• A mathematical state-transition model, reflecting the natural history of CHB, was developed.
• The model was calibrated using national data from the Public Health Agency of Canada and Statistics Canada (2007-2021).

Main Results:

• The estimated national prevalence of CHB in Canada for 2021 was 0.483% (95% CI 0.443%-0.535%).
• Approximately 54.3% (95% CI 50.9%-58.9%) of individuals with CHB were estimated to be undiagnosed.

Conclusions:

• The developed framework provides reliable estimates of CHB prevalence, consistent with previous seroprevalence studies.
• Future research could leverage detailed health administrative data for more granular, province- or age-specific CHB prevalence estimates.