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Predicting First-Semester Performance of First-Year Medical Students in a Changing Landscape
Madison Walker1, Ashley George1, Shane Mohsin1
1Osteopathic Medicine, Alabama College of Osteopathic Medicine, Dothan, USA.
Strong pre-medical academic metrics, including undergraduate GPA and MCAT scores, predict success in challenging first-semester medical school courses like anatomy and molecular medicine.
Area of Science:
- Medical Education
- Admissions Science
Background:
- Pre-medical admission factors like GPA and MCAT are studied for long-term success.
- Few studies focus on early medical school performance, a critical period for retention.
Purpose of the Study:
- To analyze pre-admission factors predicting performance in first-semester anatomy and molecular medicine courses.
- To identify predictors of success in foundational medical science subjects.
Main Methods:
- Retrospective cohort study of 795 osteopathic medical school graduates (2019-2023).
- Analyzed associations between undergraduate GPA, science GPA, MCAT scores, and undergraduate majors with course performance.
Main Results:
- Higher undergraduate GPA, science GPA, and MCAT scores correlated with significantly better grades in anatomy and molecular medicine.
- Students with biology majors outperformed non-science majors in molecular medicine.
- Undergraduate major did not significantly impact anatomy course performance.
Conclusions:
- Undergraduate GPA, science GPA, MCAT, and biology major are significant predictors of early medical school success.
- These findings can aid in identifying and supporting students at risk during the crucial first semester.
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