Trends in cardiovascular risk in Peru: A 10-year population-based analysis (2015-2024)

Area of Science:

• Public Health
• Epidemiology
• Cardiovascular Disease Research

Background:

• Limited data exist on national cardiovascular risk trends in Latin America.
• Cardiovascular disease remains a significant public health concern globally and regionally.

Purpose of the Study:

• To evaluate changes in estimated 10-year cardiovascular risk in Peru from 2015 to 2024.
• To assess disparities in cardiovascular risk trends by sex, age, residence, and region.

Main Methods:

• Cross-sectional analysis of nationally representative Peruvian Demographic and Health Survey data (2015-2024).
• Inclusion of adults aged 40-74 years with complete risk factor data.
• Estimation of 10-year cardiovascular risk using 2019 WHO non-laboratory prediction charts for Andean Latin America.
• Assessment of trends using joinpoint regression models.

Main Results:

• Mean estimated 10-year cardiovascular risk decreased from 5% to 4.4% (AAPC -2.3%).
• Prevalence of high cardiovascular risk (≥high) declined from 10.3% to 8.5% (AAPC -3.2%).
• Risk reductions were observed in women, younger adults, and urban/rural populations, but not in men or older adults. Regional variations in risk reduction were noted.

Conclusions:

• A modest decline in estimated cardiovascular risk was observed in Peru over the study period.
• The observed risk reduction may have limited clinical impact, underscoring the need for enhanced, equity-focused cardiovascular disease prevention efforts.