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Throughout its ~4.5 billion year history, the Earth has experienced periods of warming and cooling. However, the current drastic increase in global temperatures is well outside of the Earth’s cyclic norms, and evidence for human-caused global climate change is compelling. Paleoclimatology, the study of ancient climate conditions, provides ample evidence for human-caused global climate change by comparing recent conditions with those in the past.
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Updated: Sep 10, 2025

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Rising Heat, Rising Risks: Understanding the Nexus of Marine Heatwaves, Fishing Dependence, and Vulnerability to

Sally C Dowd1, Ingrid van Putten2,3,4, Lisa L Colburn5

  • 1Institute of Marine Sciences, University of North Carolina Chapel Hill, Morehead City, North Carolina, USA.

Global Change Biology
|August 26, 2025
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Marine heatwaves increasingly threaten coastal well-being. Risk varies by location, influenced by heatwave severity and community vulnerability, not just physical oceanography.

Keywords:
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Area of Science:

  • Climate change impacts
  • Marine ecology
  • Social vulnerability

Background:

  • Marine heatwaves (MHWs) are intensifying due to climate change, affecting ecosystems and coastal communities.
  • Previous research focused on MHW physical drivers and biological impacts, with limited links to social systems.
  • Assessing coastal well-being risk requires integrating MHW severity, impacted systems, and social vulnerability.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To compare potential risks to coastal community well-being from MHWs in the US and Australia (2012-2016).
  • To identify key drivers of risk, including MHW intensity, fishing dependence, and social vulnerability indices.
  • To adapt a social indicators framework for assessing risk in Australian coastal communities.

Main Methods:

  • Compared MHW cumulative intensity, fishing dependence, and vulnerability indices between US and Australian coastal communities.
  • Extended a US social indicators framework to develop Australian vulnerability indices.
  • Analyzed spatial patterns of risk and its drivers.

Main Results:

  • Risk to well-being showed different spatial patterns between the US and Australia.
  • MHWs were a primary hazard, but vulnerability and fishing employment also significantly influenced risk.
  • Risk assessment results were not transferable between countries despite similar oceanographic and socioeconomic conditions.

Conclusions:

  • Coastal community risk from MHWs is complex, influenced by both hazard intensity and socio-economic factors.
  • Understanding country-specific vulnerabilities is crucial for effective risk mitigation and adaptation planning.
  • This broad approach can guide localized studies to enhance coastal community resilience to MHWs.