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Updated: Sep 9, 2025

Watershed Planning within a Quantitative Scenario Analysis Framework
Published on: July 24, 2016
Land use and land cover changes: forecast of curve number parameters watersheds for Paraíba, Brazil
Rivaildo da Silva Ramos Filho1, Felipe Firmino Diniz2, Iana Alexandra Alves Rufino3
1Center of Technology and Natural Resources, Federal University of Campina Grande, Campina Grande, 58429-900, Paraíba, Brazil. rivaildo.silva@estudante.ufcg.edu.br.
Abstract:
Variations in land use and land cover changes (LULCC) serve as key indicators of both anthropogenic interventions and natural processes driving transformations on the Earth's surface. This work identified the causes of changes in LULCC through predictive modeling for curve number (CN) in regional scale, Paraíba, Brazil. A dynamic model (DINAMICA EGO) was used with input data from 2000 to 2010, calibrated for simulations of future LULC scenarios and a forecast of CN parameters for the entire area of the state. The results show a growing trend in non-vegetated areas and an increase in impervious areas of 17.20% in 30 years. As coastal areas are the most populated, the results show increased CN values with possible more significant occurrences and impacts of floods. In this study, LULCC maps and simulated CN values for 2040 are valuable for planning at different scales (basins or cities), mainly due to the lack of information on water and urban management plans and policies.
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