Risk of second primary cancers among melanoma survivors following radiotherapy: A population-based cohort study

Cutaneous melanoma incidence is rising globally, and survival rates have improved significantly due to advances in early detection and treatment. As a result, the long-term health of melanoma survivors is gaining increasing clinical attention. One emerging concern is the development of second primary cancers (SPCs), which may result from shared risk factors, genetic susceptibility, or late effects of cancer treatment, including radiotherapy. While radiotherapy is used selectively in melanoma management, particularly for regional nodal or in-transit metastases, its potential to induce long-latency malignancies remains underexplored in this population.

We conducted a retrospective cohort study of 19,640 adults diagnosed with primary cutaneous melanoma between 2010 and 2024 at a tertiary centre in Queensland, Australia. Patients with prior malignancies or incomplete follow-up were excluded. Only those who survived at least one-year post-treatment were included to minimise misclassification of metastases as SPCs. Standardised incidence ratios (SIRs) were calculated using national cancer incidence data. Directed acyclic graph (DAG)-guided Cox regression models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs), adjusting for age, year of diagnosis, surgery, chemotherapy, and immunotherapy. Excess absolute risks (EARs) were calculated per 10,000 person-years.

Of the cohort, 9182 received radiotherapy and 10,458 did not. SPCs occurred in 8.3 % of irradiated patients and 5.1 % of non-irradiated patients. Radiotherapy was associated with elevated SPC risk (HR 1.13; 95 % CI, 1.02-1.25). The highest relative risks were observed for second primary melanoma (HR 3.45; 95 % CI, 2.89-4.12), soft tissue sarcoma (HR 2.87; 95 % CI, 1.10-6.34), hematologic malignancies (HR 1.42; 95 % CI, 1.08-1.88), and lung cancer (HR 1.32; 95 % CI, 1.05-1.67). Risk stratification revealed the greatest burden among males aged 45-70. EAR peaked at 5.1 per 10,000 person-years in the 10-14-year latency window. Radiotherapy accounted for 15.4 % of all SPCs and 18.1 % of radiation-associated cancers.

Radiotherapy was associated with a modest but statistically significant increase in long-term SPC risk in melanoma survivors, particularly for radiosensitive cancers. These findings support the need for long-term, risk-adapted surveillance strategies, especially among middle-aged males receiving radiotherapy. Future studies should integrate clinical, genetic, and dosimetric data to better inform individualised survivorship care.