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  1. Home
  3. Extinction And Persistence In A Temperature-driven, Stage-structured Stochastic Model Of Dalbulus Maidis Dynamics With Nonlinear Density-dependent Regulation.
  1. Home
  3. Extinction And Persistence In A Temperature-driven, Stage-structured Stochastic Model Of Dalbulus Maidis Dynamics With Nonlinear Density-dependent Regulation.

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Extinction and persistence in a temperature-driven, stage-structured stochastic model of Dalbulus maidis dynamics

F E Cornes1, R H Barriga Rubio2, M Otero1

  • 1Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales, Departamento de Física, Universidad de Buenos Aires, Buenos Aires, Argentina; CONICET - Universidad de Buenos Aires, Instituto de Física de Buenos Aires (IFIBA), Buenos Aires, Argentina.

Journal of Theoretical Biology
|September 1, 2025

View abstract on PubMed

Summary
This summary is machine-generated.
Keywords:
Compartmental modelingHost-insect interactionsNonlinear regulationStochastic population dynamicsTemperature-driven systems

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This study models the corn leafhopper (Dalbulus maidis) using a new approach that includes plant leaf area. The research explores how temperature and plant growth influence corn leafhopper populations, impacting their persistence or extinction.

Area of Science:

  • Ecology
  • Mathematical Biology
  • Agricultural Science

Background:

  • Dalbulus maidis (corn leafhopper) is a significant pest and vector in maize crops.
  • Previous models of Dalbulus maidis lacked nonlinear density-dependent regulation and dynamic host-plant interactions.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To extend a stochastic, stage-structured model of Dalbulus maidis.
  • To investigate the influence of temperature-driven development and host-plant dynamics on insect population persistence or extinction.
  • To incorporate nonlinear density-dependent regulation mediated by a dynamically dependent carrying capacity based on maize leaf area.

Main Methods:

  • Developed an extended stochastic, stage-structured model for Dalbulus maidis.
  • Explicitly modeled both insect and host-plant dynamics, with asymmetric interaction.
  • Utilized simulations parameterized with laboratory and field data for analysis.

    • Main Results:

    • The model explores the interplay between temperature, maize development, and insect population dynamics.
    • Analysis assesses the factors contributing to Dalbulus maidis population extinction or persistence.
    • The study evaluates the model's ability to replicate observed abundance patterns under realistic conditions.

    Conclusions:

    • The extended model provides a biologically grounded framework for understanding insect-plant population dynamics.
    • Temperature and maize development significantly shape insect population behavior.
    • This framework can be expanded for future research on pathogen transmission and bidirectional feedback loops.