Transboundary conflict from surface water scarcity under climate change

Area of Science:

• Environmental science
• Climate change adaptation
• Water resource management

Background:

• Transboundary river basins (TRBs) are increasingly vulnerable to water scarcity-induced conflicts due to rising demand and climate change.
• Understanding the links between water scarcity and conflict in TRBs is crucial for developing effective mitigation strategies.

Purpose of the Study:

• To introduce a novel framework for predicting TRBs at risk of water scarcity-induced conflicts.
• To assess the potential impact of water scarcity on global TRBs in the coming decades.

Main Methods:

• Developed a predictive framework based on water dependency, defined by monthly water scarcity.
• Validated the framework using historical data from 2005-2014.

Main Results:

• The framework successfully explains over 80% of TRBs experiencing water scarcity-induced conflicts.
• Projections indicate nearly 40% of global TRBs could face water scarcity conflicts by 2041-2050 without intervention.
• Hotspots for potential conflicts are identified in Africa, Asia, the Middle East, and North America.

Conclusions:

• Urgent investment and stakeholder engagement are needed to foster intra-basin cooperation.
• Proactive measures, particularly intra-basin cooperation, can reduce the proportion of vulnerable TRBs to less than 10%.