Gene expression variation across genetically identical individuals predicts reproductive traits

In recent decades, genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have been the major approach to understand the biological basis of individual differences in traits and diseases. However, GWAS approaches have limited predictive power to explain individual differences, particularly for complex traits and diseases in which environmental factors play a substantial role in their etiology. Indeed, individual differences persist even in genetically identical individuals, although fully separating genetic and environmental causation is difficult in most organisms. To understand the basis of individual differences in the absence of genetic differences, we measured two quantitative reproductive traits in 180 genetically identical young adult Caenorhabditis elegans roundworms in a shared environment and performed single-individual transcriptomics on each worm. We identified hundreds of genes for which expression variation was strongly associated with reproductive traits, some of which depended on individuals' historical environments and some of which was random. Multiple small sets of genes together were highly predictive of reproductive traits, explaining on average over half and over a quarter of variation in the two traits. We manipulated mRNA levels of predictive genes to identify a set of causal genes, demonstrating the utility of this approach for both prediction and understanding underlying biology. Finally, we found that the chromatin environment of predictive genes was enriched for H3K27 trimethylation, suggesting that gene expression variation may be driven in part by chromatin structure. Together, this work shows that individual, non-genetic differences in gene expression are both highly predictive and causal in shaping reproductive traits.