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A Data-Driven Mathematical Model for Clonorchiasis with Seasonality.

Wei Wang1, Xiaohui Huang1, Tonghua Zhang2

  • 1College of Mathematics and Systems Science, Shandong University of Science and Technology, Qingdao, 266590, China.

Bulletin of Mathematical Biology
|September 3, 2025
PubMed
Summary

Clonorchiasis, a foodborne parasitic disease, shows seasonal variations. A mathematical model reveals a basic reproduction number of 1.025 in Guangxi, China, indicating a high infection burden if control measures are not enhanced.

Keywords:
Basic reproduction numberClonorchiasisGlobal dynamicsReaction-diffusion systemWell-posedness

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Area of Science:

  • Parasitology
  • Mathematical Biology
  • Epidemiology

Background:

  • Clonorchiasis is a foodborne parasitic disease caused by Clonorchis sinensis, affecting human liver bile ducts.
  • Parasite stages exhibit seasonal variations, potentially influenced by environmental factors like water temperature.
  • Understanding transmission dynamics is crucial for effective disease control.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To develop a mathematical model for Clonorchiasis transmission.
  • To incorporate seasonality, spatial heterogeneity, and extrinsic incubation period (EIP) into the model.
  • To analyze the model's global dynamics and estimate key epidemiological parameters.

Main Methods:

  • Formulation of a partial differential equations (PDE) model.
  • Inclusion of seasonal variations and spatial heterogeneity.
  • Calculation of the basic reproduction number (R0) and analysis of global dynamics.

Main Results:

  • The basic reproduction number (R0) for Clonorchiasis in Guangxi, China, was estimated at 1.025.
  • The model indicates a significant existing burden of Clonorchiasis infections.
  • Seasonal variations and spatial factors influence parasite transmission dynamics.

Conclusions:

  • The estimated R0 suggests ongoing transmission of Clonorchiasis in the studied region.
  • Sustained or intensified prevention and control measures are necessary to reduce the infection burden.
  • The mathematical model provides insights into the complex dynamics of Clonorchiasis transmission.