Local progress towards achieving the End TB targets in Ethiopia: a geospatial analysis

Area of Science:

• Epidemiology
• Spatial Analysis
• Public Health

Background:

• National TB estimates mask local geographic variations.
• Progress toward WHO End TB targets varies within countries.
• District-level analysis is crucial for understanding TB control.

Purpose of the Study:

• To identify spatial variations in TB incidence reduction at the district level in Ethiopia.
• To determine drivers of spatial disparities in TB incidence reduction.
• To map progress towards Ethiopia's TB incidence reduction targets.

Main Methods:

• Bayesian linear regression with conditional autoregressive priors.
• Analysis of TB incidence reduction across Ethiopian districts (2015-2020).
• Identification of factors influencing spatial patterns in TB reduction.

Main Results:

• National average TB incidence reduction was 31%.
• 61.6% of districts met the 20% reduction target, concentrated in Oromia, Amhara, and South Ethiopia.
• Spatial clustering of reduced TB incidence reduction observed in Afar, Benishangul-Gumuz, and Somali regions.

Conclusions:

• Significant geographic disparities in TB incidence reduction persist in Ethiopia.
• Improving TB service readiness and public TB knowledge are key factors.
• Targeted interventions are needed in Afar, Benishangul-Gumuz, and Somali regions to address TB control gaps.