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Updated: Sep 9, 2025
A Method of Trigonometric Modelling of Seasonal Variation Demonstrated with Multiple Sclerosis Relapse Data
Published on: December 9, 2015
Target trial emulation to replicate randomised clinical trials using registry data in multiple sclerosis
Antoine Gavoille1,2,3, Mikail Nourredine2,3, Fabien Rollot4,5,6,7
1Hospices Civils de Lyon, Service de Neurologie, sclérose en plaques, pathologies de la myéline et neuroinflammation, Bron, France antoine.gavoille@chu-lyon.fr.
Abstract:
BackgroundTarget trial emulation (TTE) offers a formal framework for causal inference using observational data, but its validity must be evaluated in each research domain by replicating randomised clinical trials (RCTs). We aimed to replicate eight RCTs evaluating the efficacy of disease-modifying therapies (DMTs) in multiple sclerosis (MS) using French registry data.
Methods:
This multicentre, retrospective, observational study was conducted using data extracted in December 2023 from the Observatoire Français de la Sclérose en Plaques (OFSEP) database. For each emulated trial, patients were included when they initiated one of the DMT evaluated in the corresponding RCT and met its inclusion criteria. Clinical outcomes were the annualised relapse rate and 3-month confirmed Expanded Disability Status Scale progression. Radiological outcomes were new/enlarged T2-lesions and new gadolinium-enhanced T1-lesions on a brain MRI. A targeted maximum likelihood estimator was used to estimate the treatment effect adjusted for confounding factors between groups and corrected for censoring and missing outcome assessment.
Results:
14 111 patients were included in eight emulated trials: ASSESS (fingolimod vs glatiramer acetate), BEYOND (interferon beta vs glatiramer acetate), CONFIRM (dimethyl fumarate (DMF) vs glatiramer acetate), OPERA (ocrelizumab vs interferon beta), REGARD (interferon beta vs glatiramer acetate), RIFUND-MS (rituximab vs DMF), TENERE (teriflunomide vs interferon beta) and TRANSFORMS (fingolimod vs interferon beta). Treatment effects estimated in emulated trials were concordant with RCT findings in seven of eight trials for relapse rate, and in all six trials assessing disability progression. Radiological outcomes were more challenging to replicate; concordance was achieved in three of five trials for new T2-lesions, and one of four trials for new gadolinium-enhanced T1-lesions.
Conclusion:
The combined use of a TTE methodology and high-quality registry data is a valid tool to evaluate treatment effectiveness in MS.
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