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Predicting stimulated C-peptide in type 1 diabetes using machine learning: a web-based tool from the T1D exchange
Emre Sedar Saygili1, Adnan Batman2, Ersen Karakilic1
1Division of Endocrinology and Metabolism, Department of Internal Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, Canakkale Onsekiz Mart University, Canakkale, Turkiye.
Aims:
The mixed-meal tolerance test (MMTT), though considered the gold standard for evaluating residual beta-cell function in type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1D), is impractical for routine use. We aimed to develop and validate a machine learning (ML) model to predict MMTT-stimulated C-peptide categories using routine clinical data.
Methods:
Data from 319 individuals in the T1D Exchange Registry with complete MMTT and clinical information were analyzed. The cohort was randomly split into training (70%) and test (30%) sets. Five clinical variables-age at diagnosis, diabetes duration, HbA1c, non-fasting glucose, and non-fasting C-peptide-were selected via recursive feature elimination. Four ML algorithms (random forest [RF], XGBoost, LightGBM, and ordinal logistic regression) were trained with 10-fold cross-validation.
Results:
The RF model showed the highest performance: AUC 0.94 (95% CI: 0.92-0.96), sensitivity 0.84 (95% CI: 0.80-0.89), and specificity 0.92 (95% CI: 0.90-0.94) in cross-validation. In the test set, AUC was 0.97, sensitivity 88%, and specificity 94%. Notably, 17.7% of individuals with undetectable non-fasting C-peptide had measurable levels after MMTT.
Conclusions:
This ML model provides a practical, non-invasive tool for estimating beta-cell function in T1D and is available online at https://cpeptide.streamlit.app.
