Temperature-Dependent Population Model of Apple Leafminer, Phyllonorycter ringoniella (Lepidoptera: Gracillariidae)

The Asiatic apple leafminer, Phyllonorycter ringoniella (Matsumura), is a significant secondary pest of apple trees in Northeast Asia. To better understand its population dynamics, a population model based on temperature-developmental relationships was constructed. This model includes three sub-models: spring emergence, immature stage transition, and adult oviposition. Field data were collected from sex-pheromone baited traps in apple orchards in Andong, Korea, during 2015 and 2016 to validate the model. Simulations under six pesticide-natural enemy scenarios showed that the population size of each generation was best simulated when weighted mortality factors for pesticides and natural enemies were applied. Using daily temperature inputs, the model demonstrated that P. ringoniella typically undergoes five generations per year, with peak times predicted within a 7-day margin of field data. Sensitivity analyses revealed that population size was influenced by total fecundity and the larval stage model, but peak times remained consistent despite parameter changes. Higher temperatures led to earlier adult peak dates, especially in summer generations. This model serves as a fundamental tool for estimating population dynamics and abundance changes of P. ringoniella and can guide the timings of pesticide application. Further validation is necessary to test the model's efficacy in controlling pests in apple orchards.