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Risk assessment tools for women with breast atypia: A systematic review
Tori C Nierenberg1, Juliet C Dalton1, Rylan Howell2
1Department of Surgery, Duke University Medical Center, Durham, NC, USA.
Background:
Breast atypia is a benign breast disease found in a minority of percutaneous biopsies and is associated with an increased risk of breast cancer. Risk assessment calculators/tools have variable performance in this subgroup. We systematically reviewed tools developed or validated for women with breast atypia to guide clinicians and inform future model development.
Methods:
We searched three databases for original studies published prior to November 13, 2023, that investigated the development or validation of risk assessment tools in atypia patients. PROBAST was used to assess the risk of bias and applicability.
Results:
From 6252 records, 12 studies (1993-2022) were included (91.6 % U.S.-based; median sample size 540). The Gail model (C-index 0.5) and Tyrer-Cuzick model (0.49-0.54) performed poorly. Newer models demonstrated improved calibration (0.59-0.68), though 41.6 % had high risk of bias.
Conclusions:
Current tools inadequately predict breast cancer risk in atypia patients. Novel, population-specific models are needed.
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