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USPSTF Recommendation Against PSA Screening vs. Stage and Cancer-Specific Mortality in Localized Prostate Cancer
Fabian Falkenbach1,2, Francesco Di Bello1,3, Natali Rodriguez Peñaranda1,4
1Cancer Prognostics and Health Outcomes Unit, Division of Urology, University of Montréal Health Center, Montréal, Québec, Canada.
The Prostate
|September 10, 2025
Summary
The 2012 recommendation against PSA screening increased prostate cancer mortality by 1.2-fold in men under 75. This negative impact on cancer-specific mortality has worsened over time, particularly for those treated with radical prostatectomy.
Area of Science:
- Urology
- Oncology
- Public Health
Background:
- The 2012 US Preventive Services Task Force recommendation against prostate-specific antigen (PSA) screening led to changes in prostate cancer (PCa) outcomes.
- The impact of this recommendation on cancer-specific mortality (CSM) in localized PCa remains unevaluated.
Purpose of the Study:
- To assess the effect of the recommendation against PSA screening (RAPS) on cancer-specific mortality (CSM) in localized prostate cancer.
- To analyze trends in CSM following the RAPS introduction.
Main Methods:
- Utilized the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database (2004-2021) for patients treated with radiotherapy (RT) or radical prostatectomy (RP) for localized PCa.
- Employed least-squares linear regression for time trend analysis and multivariable Cox regression to evaluate the association between RAPS and PCa-mortality.
Main Results:
- For patients under 75, the RAPS era showed a 1.2-fold higher CSM compared to the pre-RAPS era (1.9% vs 1.6%).
- This increased CSM was significant for both RP (1.3-fold) and RT (1.1-fold) treated patients under 75.
- For patients aged 75 and older, the RAPS era did not show a significant increase in CSM.
Conclusions:
- The introduction of RAPS by the USPSTF is associated with a 1.2-fold increase in CSM for localized PCa patients under 75.
- No significant increase in CSM was observed for patients aged 75 and older following RAPS.
- Time trend analysis indicates a worsening negative effect of RAPS on CSM over time, particularly since its introduction.

