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Carbon is the basis of all organic matter on Earth, and is recycled through the ecosystem in two primary processes: one in which carbon is exchanged among living organisms, and one in which carbon is cycled over long periods of time through fossilized organic remains, weathering of rocks, and volcanic activity. Human activities, including increased agricultural practices and the burning of fossil fuels, has greatly affected the balance of the natural carbon cycle.
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The weak land carbon sink hypothesis.

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The global land carbon sink is likely half the size previously estimated. This study revises the carbon budget, suggesting a weaker land sink and adjusting ocean and fossil fuel fluxes accordingly.

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Area of Science:

  • Earth System Science
  • Climate Science
  • Carbon Cycle Research

Background:

  • Contemporary global carbon budget assessments consistently report a significant net land carbon sink.
  • This established paradigm is based on various estimation methods, including atmospheric inversions.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To review evidence for the net land carbon sink paradigm.
  • To quantify differences in global and Northern Hemisphere land sink estimates using atmospheric inversion and satellite biomass data.
  • To test the hypothesis that the net land sink is weaker than commonly reported.

Main Methods:

  • Reviewing existing evidence on the land carbon sink.
  • Quantifying discrepancies between atmospheric inversion and satellite-derived vegetation biomass time series.
  • Synthesizing data to estimate global and regional carbon fluxes.
  • Adjusting ocean and fossil fuel carbon fluxes to reconcile with land sink estimates.

Main Results:

  • The global net land carbon sink is estimated at 0.8 ± 0.7 PgC/year for 2000–2019, approximately half the Global Carbon Project estimate.
  • Concurrent adjustments show an 8% increase in the ocean sink and a 6% decrease in fossil fuel emissions.
  • The revised budget partially reconciles constraints from vegetation carbon, the north-south CO2 gradient, and O2 trends.

Conclusions:

  • The net land carbon sink is likely substantially weaker than widely reported.
  • Model modifications are proposed to align with a weaker land sink.
  • Further research and observational approaches are suggested to validate this hypothesis.