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Causal inference unveils how forest coverage mitigates excess snakebite cases during rainfall seasons in Colombia
Juan David Gutiérrez1, Carlos Bravo-Vega2,3, Juan Manuel Cordovez4
1Facultad de Medicina y Ciencias de la Salud, Instituto Masira, Universidad de Santander, Bucaramanga, Colombia.
Scientific Reports
|September 10, 2025
Summary
Heavy rainfall significantly increases snakebite cases in Colombia, especially in deforested areas. Climate-adaptive public health strategies are crucial for managing this neglected tropical disease.
Area of Science:
- Environmental epidemiology
- Climate change impacts
- Public health preparedness
Background:
- Snakebite envenoming is a neglected tropical disease affecting rural populations globally.
- Antivenom availability is often limited in endemic regions.
- Understanding environmental drivers is key for effective public health interventions.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the causal impact of rainfall on snakebite incidence in Colombia.
- To explore the moderating role of environmental factors like forest coverage.
- To inform climate-adaptive strategies for snakebite mitigation.
Main Methods:
- Utilized a spatiotemporal database of monthly snakebite cases (2007-2021).
- Applied causal inference and machine learning models.
- Accounted for rainfall, forest coverage, rural GDP, and climate indices.
Main Results:
- A one-standard-deviation increase in rainfall (134.65 mm) caused a 2.1% rise in excess snakebite cases.
- The impact of rainfall on excess cases was amplified in areas with less than 50% forest cover.
- Forest coverage showed an inverse relationship with the rainfall-snakebite association.
Conclusions:
- High rainfall is a significant causal factor for increased snakebite cases.
- Deforestation exacerbates snakebite risk during periods of heavy rainfall.
- Integrating ecological and epidemiological data is vital for global snakebite burden management.
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