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Understanding how mobility and spatial disparities shape COVID-19 transmission under rotational and localized
Mauricio Santos-Vega1,2, Jaime Cascante Vega3, Felipe Aramburo Jaramillo4
1Departamento de Ciencias Biológicas, Universidad de los Andes, COL, Bogotá, D.C, USA. om.santos@uniandes.edu.co.
Scientific Reports
|April 28, 2026
Summary
Rotational lockdowns in Bogotá reduced inter-locality travel but had minimal impact on within-locality movement. Early intervention cycles curbed SARS-CoV-2 transmission, with diminishing effects over time, especially in lower socioeconomic areas.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Public Health
- Urban Studies
Background:
- Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) like lockdowns were used to control SARS-CoV-2.
- Their effectiveness at fine spatial scales, particularly in diverse urban settings, remains unclear.
Purpose of the Study:
- To evaluate the effectiveness of a rotational, locality-level lockdown policy in Bogotá, Colombia.
- To assess the impact of these NPIs on mobility patterns and SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics.
Main Methods:
- Analyzed mobile phone data to quantify changes in inter- and intra-locality mobility.
- Estimated the effective reproductive number ([Formula: see text]) using epidemiological data.
- Employed a compartmental model to simulate counterfactual epidemic trajectories.
Main Results:
- Rotational lockdowns reduced inter-locality mobility by up to 40% but minimally affected intra-locality movement.
- Early lockdown cycles decreased transmission by up to 27%, with diminishing returns in subsequent rounds.
- Socioeconomic disparities influenced transmission, with stronger mobility-transmission links in lower socioeconomic status areas.
Conclusions:
- Fine-scale NPIs can transiently reduce urban transmission.
- The impact of NPIs is contingent on mobility patterns and socioeconomic inequalities.
- Targeted strategies considering urban heterogeneity are crucial for effective public health interventions.
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