Incidence of Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Metabolic Dysfunction-Associated Steatotic Liver Disease: A Reconstructed...

Metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) is the fastest rising etiology of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). The time-dependent incidence of HCC in people with MASLD has not been reported. We aimed to provide robust estimates for HCC incidence in MASLD.

Medline and Embase were searched from inception to November 2024. Individual participant data were reconstructed from published Kaplan-Meier curves, and a pooled analysis of cumulative HCC incidence from time-to-event data was performed using a random-effects model.

We screened 4951 articles and included 26 studies (3,995,728 individuals). The 1-, 3-, 5-, and 10-year cumulative incidence of HCC in people with MASLD and known advanced fibrosis was 0.8%, 2.4%, 3.9%, and 8.8%, respectively, in administrative database studies, and 3.9%, 11.7%, 21.0% and 48.5%, respectively, in hospital/clinic-based studies. The 1-, 3-, 5-, and 10-year cumulative incidence of HCC in people with MASLD but without advanced fibrosis was 0.1%, 0.5%, 0.7%, and 1.3%, respectively, in administrative database studies, and 1.6%, 4.7%, 8.2%, and 18.3%, respectively, in hospital/clinic-based studies. Selection bias may contribute to the elevated risk in hospital/clinic-based studies. The risk of HCC in patients with advanced fibrosis was significantly higher compared with those without advanced fibrosis in both administrative database (hazard ratio [HR], 11.09; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.68-45.89; P < .001) and hospital/clinic-based studies (HR, 10.50; 95% CI, 3.19-34.51; P < .001).

This reconstructed individual participant data meta-analysis provides updated estimates for HCC incidence in people with MASLD. The incidence of HCC is elevated in people with MASLD and advanced fibrosis. These data may have implications for further research in HCC surveillance and future development of surveillance algorithms.