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Critical-Speed Modeling Using Familiar Performance Tests Can Accurately Predict 1500-m Rowing-Ergometer Performance
Daniel J Astridge1,2, Jason C Bartam3, Peter Peeling1,2
1School of Human Sciences (Sport and Exercise Sciences), University of Western Australia, Crawley, WA, Australia.
International Journal of Sports Physiology and Performance
|September 11, 2025
Summary
A linear critical-speed model accurately predicts maximal rowing performance using 2000-m and 500-m time trials (TTs). This model allows for effective training adjustments and performance tracking in rowing.
Area of Science:
- Sports Science
- Exercise Physiology
- Biomechanics
Background:
- Assessing maximal rowing performance is crucial for training optimization.
- Existing models may not fully capture the nuances of ergometer performance.
- A reliable predictive model can enhance training strategies for rowers.
Purpose of the Study:
- To evaluate the predictive accuracy of a linear critical-speed model for maximal rowing-ergometer performance.
- To determine if this model can reliably forecast 1500-m rowing capacity.
- To validate the model against actual performance data.
Main Methods:
- Twenty highly trained rowers (5 female) completed multiple ergometer time trials (TTs).
- A linear distance-time relationship from 2000-m and 500-m TTs was used to predict 1500-m performance.
- Time-to-exhaustion (TTE) trials at predicted intensity assessed model accuracy.
Main Results:
- The critical-speed model demonstrated high accuracy, predicting 1500-m performance within 0.4% difference.
- Rowers maintained 98.6% of target power output during TTE trials.
- The model showed a near-perfect association (R² = .99) with actual performance distances.
Conclusions:
- The linear critical-speed model provides an accurate method for predicting maximal rowing performance.
- This model facilitates focused 2000-m preparation while tracking 1500-m progression.
- It offers insights into how changes in 2000-m and 500-m TT times impact predicted 1500-m performance.

