Rowing at the 2028 Los Angeles Olympic Games: 1500-m Versus 2000-m Performance and the Predictive Accuracy of a...

Area of Science:

• Sports Science
• Exercise Physiology
• Rowing Performance Analysis

Background:

• The 2028 Los Angeles Olympic Games will feature a reduced 1500-m rowing distance.
• Elite rowers currently train and compete with a 2000-m standard distance.

Purpose of the Study:

• Compare rowing performance between 2000-m (TT2000) and 1500-m (TT1500) time trials.
• Evaluate the predictive accuracy of a linear critical speed (CS) model for the new 1500-m distance.

Main Methods:

• Thirty-four elite under-23 rowers (12 female, 22 male) completed maximal ergometer time trials: TT2000, TT1500, and TT500.
• Linear mixed modeling assessed performance differences between TT2000 and TT1500.
• A CS model utilized TT2000 and TT500 data to predict TT1500 performance.

Main Results:

• Rowers achieved higher mean power output in TT1500 (males: +4.8%, females: +4.4%) compared to TT2000.
• TT1500 completion times were significantly faster (26% reduction).
• The CS model accurately predicted TT1500 times with minimal error (<1s absolute error, 2.8s SEE, 0.5% CV, R=.99).

Conclusions:

• A simple critical speed model, using standard tests, effectively predicts 1500-m rowing performance.
• This model allows tracking 1500-m progression without compromising 2000-m training.
• Elite rowers may need specific training adaptations for optimal performance at the reduced 1500-m Olympic distance.