Trace Element Levels in Packaged Ice Cream and Associated Human Health Risks: A Simulation-Based Analysis

This study investigates the concentrations of essential and trace elements (Ni, Cu, Fe, Zn, Mn, and Al) in packaged ice cream samples collected from markets in Kırşehir province, located in Central Anatolia, Turkey, aiming to assess potential health risks associated with their consumption. Among the detected trace elements, Al (3.21-16.6 mg/kg) and Fe (2.03-24.0 mg/kg) had the highest concentrations, followed by Zn (0.56-3.00 mg/kg), Ni (0.84-4.84 mg/kg), Cu (1.15-3.46 mg/kg), and Mn (0.18-1.56 mg/kg). To explore the relationships between trace elements and identify possible contamination sources, chemometric approaches including principal component analysis, correlation matrices, and hierarchical cluster analysis (Ward's method) were applied. Human health risk assessment was conducted by calculating Estimated Daily Intake (EDI), Target Hazard Quotient (THQ), Hazard Index (HI), and Carcinogenic Risk (CR), with uncertainty evaluated through Monte Carlo Simulation (10,000 iterations). HI values above 1 in children and adults indicate that trace element exposure through ice cream consumption may pose a health risk. High Al-THQ and Ni-CR values in children may require stricter monitoring and regulatory measures in case of long-term and regular consumption.