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Resurgence in focus: Covid-19 dynamics and optimal control frameworks.
Evans O Omorogie1, Kolade M Owolabi1,2, Bola T Olabode1
1Department of Mathematical Sciences, Federal University of Technology, PMB 704 Akure, Ondo State, Nigeria.
Global Epidemiology
|September 15, 2025
Summary
This study developed a COVID-19 dynamical model to assess vaccination and non-medical interventions. Consistent enforcement of control measures is crucial for mitigating transmission dynamics and reducing the basic reproduction number.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Mathematical Biology
- Public Health
Background:
- COVID-19 resurgence and variants necessitate ongoing transmission dynamic analysis.
- Vaccination and non-medical interventions are key strategies for disease control.
Purpose of the Study:
- To analyze the impact of vaccination and sustained non-medical interventions on COVID-19 transmission dynamics.
- To determine optimal control strategies for mitigating the spread of COVID-19.
Main Methods:
- Developed a dynamical model for COVID-19 transmission.
- Utilized Lyapunov function and Jacobian matrix for stability analysis.
- Employed optimal control theory and numerical simulations for assessment.
Main Results:
- Sensitivity analysis identified key parameters influencing the model.
- Vaccination and non-medical interventions significantly reduced the basic reproduction rate (R0).
- Optimal control simulations indicated consistent enforcement of measures is most effective.
Conclusions:
- Sustained implementation of vaccination and non-medical interventions is vital for controlling COVID-19.
- Mathematical modeling provides valuable insights into effective public health strategies.
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