Baseline metabolomic profile as potential biomarker for weight change after Roux-en-Y gastric bypass (RYGB) surgery

Metabolic and bariatric surgery (MBS) is the most effective intervention for sustained weight loss and cardiometabolic improvement in individuals with severe obesity. However, long-term outcomes vary, with many patients experiencing weight regain. The biological determinants of this variability remain incompletely understood. Given the integrative nature of the metabolome-capturing interactions among host genetics, diet, microbiota, and environmental exposures-we hypothesized that baseline circulating metabolites could stratify individuals into distinct long-term weight trajectory groups. We profiled untargeted fasting plasma metabolites in a nested case-control study within the Longitudinal Assessment of Bariatric Surgery (LABS-2) cohort. From these metabolites, a 13-metabolite risk score (MetRS) predictive of weight regain five years after Roux-en-Y gastric bypass was derived. The MetRS, which captures pathways including fatty acid oxidation, bile acid conjugation, and microbial-host co-metabolism, outperformed clinical variables in predicting long-term weight outcomes. Its performance was evaluated in two independent cohorts, including one assessed a median of seven years post-surgery. Genomic analyses identified common variants in loci including AGXT2 and SLC7A5 associated with key MetRS metabolites, suggesting a heritable component to the observed metabolic signature. Together, these findings lay the groundwork for a clinically actionable framework to identify individuals at risk for weight recidivism and support the integration of metabolic profiling into preoperative assessment for personalized obesity care.