Landscape-level, participatory wildfire governance reduces fire hazard and potential carbon emission

Extreme wildfires are increasingly frequent in Mediterranean landscapes, especially in southern Europe, where traditional fire suppression strategies have proven to be insufficient. This study assesses the effectiveness of landscape-scale participatory governance in reducing fire hazard and enhancing carbon storage. We analysed fire behaviour and carbon balance under four fuel management scenarios: control unmanaged, public intervention, private intervention (led through the MOSAICO initiative), and a mixed governance model. The study was conducted in two counties of western Spain using fire simulations (FLAMMAP) and carbon models under four representative weather scenarios. All treatments significantly reduced fire size conditional burn probability, conditional flame length and crown fire probability, with the mixed scenario being the most effective under extreme conditions. At the local scale, agricultural and livestock practices were particularly effective, especially when spatially coinciding with historical ignition areas. In terms of carbon, the mixed governance scenario resulted in the most favourable net carbon balance by combining lower carbon removals with substantial reductions in potential emissions from wildfires. In contrast, forestry interventions frequently removed large amounts of biomass in areas with a low burn probability, which required longer recovery periods to compensate for carbon losses. Promoting fire-smart landscapes through community-based agroforestry and livestock practices offers a cost-effective approach to mitigate wildfire hazard and, simultaneously, support ecosystem services, including carbon storage. These results underline the urgent need to encourage proactive, community-based land use practices, which simultaneously reduce wildfire risk and enhance ecosystem services such as carbon storage, especially in fire-prone rural areas.