Evaluating the Fifth Korean National Health Plan: Statistical Insights and Strategic Implications for Health...

The Korean National Health Plan (HP) is a long-term, whole-of-government (WOG) health strategy aimed at improving population health and achieving health equity. The Fifth Plan (HP2030, 2021-2025) has reached its midterm evaluation stage, highlighting the need for a comprehensive quantitative assessment of its implementation outcomes.

This study aims to assess whether statistically significant changes have occurred through a quantitative evaluation of the performance indicators of the Fifth National Health Promotion Comprehensive Plan and to analyse the implementation rates of action plans by each responsible ministry. It further seeks to identify the linkages between policy implementation and outcomes in order to derive strategic implications for the formulation of the Sixth Plan.

The statistical significance of changes in performance indicators from baseline to the most recent values was assessed using national health statistics, including the Korea Community Health Survey (KCHS) and the Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (KNHANES). In addition, the evaluation framework of Healthy People 2030 in the United States was applied to examine the direction and magnitude of changes in health disparities across income levels and regions. Furthermore, annual implementation reports submitted by relevant ministries were reviewed to quantify task implementation rates and evaluate progress in key priority areas.

Out of a total of 400 performance indicators, 190 (47.5%) either met their targets or showed statistically significant improvement, 98 (24.5%) showed no meaningful change, and 82 (20.5%) demonstrated worsening trends. In terms of health equity, among 24 indicators monitoring disparities, 10 (41.7%) showed reductions in income- or region-based disparities, while 12 (50.0%) exhibited widening gaps. The implementation rates of policy tasks increased from 86.4% in 2021 to 98.6% in 2023.

Unlike prior evaluations based solely on average change, this study comprehensively assessed policy effectiveness by integrating statistical significance testing, changes in health equity, and implementation progress. While several targets were met ahead of schedule, additional policy interventions are required in key areas such as noncommunicable disease prevention. The results underscore the necessity of continuous monitoring and enhanced evaluation frameworks to advance health equity.

This study provides empirical evidence for improving national health policy implementation through a more scientific approach by quantitatively analysing the relationships among policy goal achievement, improvements in health equity, and policy implementation progress. These findings offer important strategic implications for the development of the Sixth Plan (HP2030, 2026-2030), including the refinement of performance indicators, alignment with international goals, and better coherence between implementation plans and outcome objectives.