Do older drivers (65+) exhibit significant impairments in hazard prediction and attentional processes?

This study pioneers the use of the Hazard Prediction-Orienting Test to examine attentional capture in older drivers (aged 65+). Participants watched short, naturalistic driving videos and were asked to predict what would happen next after the video cut to black just as a developing traffic hazard that would require a behavioral response (e.g., slowing down or changing lanes to avoid a collision) began to emerge. Each trial included three multiple-choice options, with the correct answer corresponding to the developing hazard. Attentional orienting was manipulated through three conditions: simple trials (one developing hazard); valid trials (two hazards: one potential, which does not require driver action, and another developing located nearby); and invalid trials (two hazards: one potential and another developing located at a distance). A total of 141 experienced drivers, grouped by age (middle-aged, young-senior, and elderly) completed the test. A 3 × 3 mixed-effects ANOVA revealed significant main effects by age group and trial type, as well as a significant interaction. Elderly drivers showed the greatest performance decline, specifically under complex hazard conditions (both valid and invalid trials). These results were supported by significant correlations with neuropsychological assessments, including the Trail Making Test, the Useful Field of View (UFOV), and visual function measures such as visual acuity. Furthermore, mediation analysis revealed that the effect of age on hazard prediction in invalid trials was significantly mediated by selective attention, as measured by UFOV subtest 3. These findings suggest that for drivers over 65, both hazard prediction and attentional performance decline to levels comparable to those of inexperienced drivers in our previous study. The test shows promise as a functional assessment tool for identifying age-related declines relevant to traffic safety.