Adapting Scenario Planning to Create an Expectation for Surprises: Going Beyond Probability and Plausibility in Risk...

Area of Science:

• Risk Assessment and Management
• Decision Science
• Futures Studies

Background:

• Risk assessments often fail to account for uncertainty and potential surprises.
• Existing scenario-planning methods, like Intuitive Logics (IL), aim to broaden future considerations beyond mere probability.

Purpose of the Study:

• To adapt the Intuitive Logics (IL) scenario-planning method to enhance risk assessment capabilities.
• To improve the anticipation of surprises in risk assessments by moving beyond probability and plausibility.

Main Methods:

• A controlled experiment involving a simulated IL scenario-planning exercise.
• Participants assigned extreme outcome values to driving forces under "probable," "plausible," and "surprising" uncertainty conditions.
• Analysis of assigned values and participant interpretation of uncertainty terms.

Main Results:

• The "surprising" uncertainty condition led to the assignment of more extreme values compared to "probable" and "plausible" conditions.
• No significant difference was found between "probable" and "plausible" conditions in value assignments.
• Participants interpreted "probable" and "plausible" similarly, undermining the intended effect of IL's plausibility focus.

Conclusions:

• Adapting IL can help risk assessors move beyond probability and plausibility to better account for uncertainty.
• The adaptation facilitates improved anticipation of surprises in risk assessments.
• Standard IL may not effectively stretch thinking beyond probability if "probable" and "plausible" are interpreted interchangeably.