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Mapping Overdose Risk in Real Time: A Risk Terrain Modeling Analysis of 911 Calls in Detroit, 2022-2024.
1Author Affiliations: School of Information, University of South Florida, Tampa, Florida (Dr Lersch); and Department of Criminology and Criminal Justice, University of Tampa, Tampa, Florida (Dr Hart).
Journal of Public Health Management and Practice : JPHMP
|September 19, 2025
Summary
Risk Terrain Modeling identified high-risk locations for drug overdose calls in Detroit using 911 data. This approach helps public health agencies target harm reduction strategies effectively.
Area of Science:
- Public Health
- Geospatial Analysis
- Epidemiology
Background:
- Drug overdose deaths are a significant public health crisis in the US.
- Current data systems have limitations in timeliness and geographic detail, hindering rapid response.
- Identifying high-risk areas is crucial for effective intervention.
Purpose of the Study:
- To pinpoint high-risk locations for overdose-related emergency calls in Detroit, Michigan.
- To utilize Risk Terrain Modeling (RTM) and 911 call data (2022-2024) for this identification.
- To evaluate the spatial relationship between overdose incidents and the built environment.
Main Methods:
- Retrospective geospatial analysis using Risk Terrain Modeling (RTM).
- Analysis of 18,034 overdose-related emergency calls in Detroit, Michigan.
- Quantification of overdose risk using Relative Risk Scores (RRS) in 250x250m grid cells.
Main Results:
- Overdose emergency calls showed significant spatial clustering.
- RTM identified 8 key risk factors, including ATMs, retail, and religious organizations.
- 2.7% of locations were classified as very high risk, with RRS ranging from 1 to 142.5.
Conclusions:
- Risk Terrain Modeling (RTM) provides a timely, place-based method for identifying overdose risk using 911 data.
- This geospatial approach enables public health agencies to prioritize harm reduction efforts.
- Resource allocation can be optimized by targeting identified high-risk locations.
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