Indirect experiences and storm risk perceptions: Case study - Texas, United States

Understanding public risk perception of hurricanes and flooding is critical for shaping effective mitigation and adaptive behaviors amid escalating climate change impacts. Hurricanes have caused over one trillion dollars in damages in the U.S. since 1980, largely due to flood-related storm surges-risks heightened by sea level rise and warmer ocean temperatures, especially along the Gulf Coast and Eastern Seaboard. While direct experiences with hazards are known to influence perception, the role of indirect experiences-information from experts, political narratives, and social networks-is less understood. This study examines how both direct and indirect experiences influence storm risk perception among 603 Texas residents surveyed in 2021. Using structural equation modeling, we assess the effects of expert, political, and social influences on risk perception, controlling for recent flood experience and demographics. Confirmatory factor analysis supports the reliability and validity of our measures. Findings show that recent flood experience significantly heightens risk perception and positively impacts all forms of indirect experience. Expert and social influences have strong positive direct effects on risk perception, whereas political influence has a significant negative effect, possibly reflecting political messaging that downplays risks following mitigation efforts. Higher education and income are associated with lower risk perception. Importantly, indirect experiences mediate the link between direct flood experience and risk perception, highlighting the complex pathways shaping public awareness. These results emphasize the need for policymakers to promote credible expert and social information channels and encourage responsible political communication to enhance community preparedness and resilience in hurricane-prone areas.