Co-circulating pathogens of humans: a systematic review of mechanistic transmission models
Kelsey E Shaw1, Jennifer K Peterson1, Neda Jalali1
1Department of Biological Sciences, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, IN 46556, USA.
Abstract:
Historically, most mathematical models of infectious disease dynamics have focused on a single pathogen, despite the ubiquity of co-circulating pathogens in the real world. We conducted a systematic review of 326 published papers that included a mechanistic, population-level model of co-circulating human pathogens. We identified the types of pathogens represented in this literature, techniques used and motivations for conducting these studies. We also created an interaction index to quantify the degree to which co-circulating pathogen models include across scale and/or pathogen-pathogen interactions. We found that the emergence of new pathogens, such as HIV and SARS-CoV-2, precipitated modelling activity of the emerging pathogen with established pathogens. Pathogen characteristics also tended to drive modelling activity; for example, HIV suppresses the immune response, eliciting interesting dynamics when it is modelled with other pathogens. The motivations driving these studies were varied but could be divided into two major categories: exploration of dynamics and evaluation of interventions. Future potential avenues of research we identified include investigating the effects of misdiagnosis of clinically similar co-circulating pathogens and characterizing the impacts of one pathogen on public health resources available to curtail the spread of other pathogens.
Insights
Mathematical models increasingly examine co-circulating pathogens, not just single ones. This review analyzed 326 studies, finding new pathogen emergence drives modeling of multiple infections and interventions.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Mathematical Biology
- Public Health
Background:
- Most infectious disease models historically focus on single pathogens.
- Co-circulating pathogens are common in real-world scenarios.
- Understanding pathogen interactions is crucial for public health.
Purpose of the Study:
- To systematically review mechanistic, population-level models of co-circulating human pathogens.
- To identify pathogen types, modeling techniques, and motivations in existing literature.
- To quantify pathogen-pathogen interactions in co-circulation models.
Main Methods:
- Systematic literature review of 326 published papers.
- Analysis of pathogen types, modeling techniques, and study motivations.
- Development of an interaction index to quantify cross-scale and pathogen-pathogen interactions.
Main Results:
- Emergence of new pathogens (e.g., HIV, SARS-CoV-2) spurred modeling of their interactions with established pathogens.
- Pathogen characteristics, like HIV's immune suppression, influence modeling dynamics.
- Primary motivations for modeling were exploring disease dynamics and evaluating interventions.
Conclusions:
- New pathogen emergence significantly impacts modeling of co-circulating diseases.
- Pathogen-specific characteristics necessitate tailored modeling approaches.
- Future research should address misdiagnosis and resource competition among co-circulating pathogens.
More Related Videos
12:21A Mouse Model for the Transition of Streptococcus pneumoniae from Colonizer to Pathogen upon Viral Co-Infection Recapitulates Age-Exacerbated Illness
Published on: September 28, 2022
11:40Humanized Mouse Model to Study Bacterial Infections Targeting the Microvasculature
Published on: April 1, 2014
Related Concept Videos
01:20Infection
The chain begins with pathogens: bacteria, viruses, fungi, prions, or parasites such as protozoa helminths. These can be present on the skin as transient or resident flora, or they can be acquired from the environment. Identifying and treating the type of infection and...
01:21Mechanistic Models: Overview of Compartment Models
01:23Mechanistic Models: Compartment Models in Individual and Population Analysis
01:21Causality in Epidemiology
01:17Transmission-based Precautions I: Contact, Enteric, and Droplets
Contact Precautions:
Contact precautions are the measures taken to prevent the transmission of infectious agents, especially epidemiologically important microorganisms such as MRSA or influenza, primarily transmitted through direct or indirect contact with an...
01:25Transmission-based Precautions II: Airborne and Protective Environment
Airborne precautions:
Use airborne precautions when treating patients known or suspected to have diseases that spread through the air—for example, tuberculosis or measles. These organisms are present in smaller droplets expelled by an infected person and...