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Fake publications in biomedical science: red-flagging method indicates mass production.

Bernhard A Sabel1,2, Emely Knaack3, Gerd Gigerenzer4

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Summary

Fake academic publications, often from paper mills using AI, are a growing threat to biomedical research. A new red-flagging rule estimates 5.8% of biomedical articles are fake, totaling over 100,000 annually.

Keywords:
Biomedical scienceFakePaper millResearch integrityScience fraudTrust

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Area of Science:

  • Bibliometrics and scientific publishing integrity.
  • Biomedical research and academic fraud detection.

Background:

  • Academic publishing integrity is threatened by "paper mills" producing fake publications using AI.
  • The scale of fake publications in biomedicine is largely unknown, necessitating reliable detection methods.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To develop and validate an easy-to-apply rule for red-flagging potentially fake biomedical publications.
  • To estimate the current scale and growth of fake publications in the biomedical literature.

Main Methods:

  • A 9-step bibliometric analysis of 17,120 PubMed® publications.
  • Development and validation of simple classification rules, including a multifactorial tallying rule.
  • Application of the best-performing rule to random samples from 2020 and 2023, followed by Bayes' rule for estimation.

Main Results:

  • The multifactorial tallying rule achieved 94% sensitivity and an 11.5% false-alarm rate.
  • Red-flagged articles increased, reaching an estimated 16.3% in 2023.
  • An estimated 5.8% of biomedical literature consists of actual fake publications, with over 100,000 articles annually.

Conclusions:

  • Fast-and-frugal classification rules can effectively red-flag potentially fake scientific publications for scrutiny.
  • The scale of fake publishing in biomedicine is substantial, significantly exceeding retractions and posing risks to public trust and health.
  • Developing effective fake detection tools is crucial for maintaining the integrity of the scientific record and preventing further damage.