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Infectious Diseases in Children: Diagnosing the Impact of Climate Change-Related Disasters Using Integer-Valued
Dessie Wanda1, Holivia Almira Jacinta1, Arief Rahman Hakim2
1Faculty of Nursing, Universitas Indonesia, Depok 16424, Indonesia.
Diseases (Basel, Switzerland)
|September 26, 2025
Summary
Climate change increases disaster risks, impacting children's infectious diseases like diarrhea, dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF), and acute respiratory infection (ARI). Landslides and extreme weather significantly affect disease incidence, necessitating urgent preventive health strategies.
Area of Science:
- Environmental Health
- Epidemiology
- Climate Science
Background:
- Climate change is increasing extreme weather events, posing risks to children's health.
- Infectious diseases like diarrhea, dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF), and acute respiratory infection (ARI) are common in children and may be influenced by climate-related disasters.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the impact of climate change-related disaster risks on the incidence of diarrhea, DHF, and ARI in children.
- To model the relationship between natural disasters (floods, landslides, extreme weather) and childhood infectious diseases.
Main Methods:
- Utilized integer-valued autoregressive (INAR) models with overdispersed assumptions to analyze monthly disease incidence data.
- Incorporated historical data on floods, landslides, and extreme weather events as explanatory variables.
- Conducted a case study in Indonesia from January 2010 to December 2024.
Main Results:
- Landslides positively correlate with childhood diarrhea and DHF incidence.
- Floods and extreme weather events show a negative impact on diarrhea incidence.
- Extreme weather events are linked to increased ARI incidence, particularly during and after the COVID-19 pandemic.
Conclusions:
- Climate change-induced disasters significantly influence the incidence of key childhood infectious diseases.
- Findings highlight the heightened future health risks for children under changing climate scenarios.
- Emphasizes the critical need for proactive health strategies and preventive measures to mitigate these risks.
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