Using the synthetic control method to evaluate pesticide reduction effect: A study based on China's pesticide...

Faced with environmental challenges induced by excessive pesticide application, reducing pesticide use while maintaining agricultural growth has become a critical challenge in global agricultural development. Consequently, investigating the impact of pesticide management policies, particularly China's approach, on pesticide use is of great practical significance. Using 2010-2020 county-level panel data from Sichuan Province, the study employs the synthetic control method (SCM) to analyze the effect of China's pesticide management policy on pesticide application intensity. The results show that: (1) China's pesticide management policy significantly reduces pesticide application intensity by 37.1 %. The intensity fell from 5.460 kg/ha in 2010 to 2.283 kg/ha in 2020, and the volume decreased from 541 t to 247 t, with the reduction effect exhibiting long-term sustainability. (2) The reduction effect in pesticide application intensity remains statistically significant across the validity and robustness tests, further confirming the policy's effectiveness. (3) Mechanism analysis indicates that the policy reduces pesticide application intensity by optimizing agricultural planting structure with a higher proportion of grain and oil crop cultivation, and by promoting moderately scaled farming with an expansion of land operation scale. Meanwhile, off-farm labor transfer, caused by the policy, is also conducive to reduced pesticide application intensity in the long term. Building on the successful experience of China's pesticide management policy, the findings suggest optimizing policy design, exploring multidimensional pathways in reducing pesticide use, and synergizing agricultural policies to foster harmony between agricultural development and ecological protection.