Multilevel Analysis of Zero-Dose Children in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Three Delays Model Study

Zero-dose children represent a critical challenge for achieving universal immunization coverage in sub-Saharan Africa. This study applies the Three Delays Model to examine multilevel factors associated with zero-dose children.

We analyzed data from 30,500 children aged 12-23 months across 28 sub-Saharan African countries using demographic and health surveys (2015-2024). Zero-dose status was defined as not receiving the first dose of diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis vaccine. Multilevel logistic regression models examined individual-, community-, and country-level determinants.

Overall, zero-dose prevalence was 12.19% (95% confidence interval: 11.82-12.56), ranging from 0.51% in Rwanda to 40.00% in Chad. Poor maternal health-seeking behavior showed the strongest association (odds ratio (OR) 12.00, 95% credible interval: 9.78-14.55). Paternal education demonstrated clear gradients, with no formal education increasing odds 1.52-fold. Maternal empowerment factors were significant: lack of decision-making power (OR = 1.23), financial barriers (OR = 1.98), and no media access (OR = 1.32). Low community literacy and low country-level health expenditure were associated with increased zero-dose prevalence. Substantial clustering persisted at community (19.5%) and country (18.7%) levels.

Zero-dose children concentrate among the most disadvantaged populations, with maternal health-seeking behavior as the strongest predictor. Immediate policy actions should integrate antenatal care with vaccination services, target high-parity mothers, eliminate financial barriers, and increase health expenditure to 15% of national budgets.