Exploring spatial-temporal heterogeneity in new-type urbanization's impact on health expenditure: a GTWR analysis

To address challenges arising from rapid urban development, China has formulated and implemented the New-Type Urbanization strategy. However, empirical research on the specific impacts between New-Type Urbanization and health expenditures remains limited.

Using panel data from 31 Chinese provinces (2012-2019), this study constructed a comprehensive evaluation index system for New-Type Urbanization across four dimensions: demographic, economic, social, and ecological. Geographically and Temporally Weighted Regression was employed to examine the spatial effects, influencing factors, and spatial heterogeneity of New-Type Urbanization's impact on health expenditures.

The results show that China's health expenditures primarily exhibit High-High and Low-Low clustering patterns with spatial fluctuations. Meanwhile, the impact of New-Type Urbanization on health expenditures demonstrates spatiotemporal heterogeneity and non-stationarity. As urbanization levels increase, the negative effects of health expenditure clustering expand, while the influence of economic urbanization weaken.

Our findings fill the research gap regarding the impacts between New-Type Urbanization and health expenditures, while also providing direction for New-Type Urbanization development to support the implementation of health policies aimed at controlling health expenditure growth.