Prediction of Potential Suitable Habitats for Elaphodus cephalophus in China Under Climate Change Scenarios

Global climate change exerts profound impacts on biodiversity and species distributions, potentially leading to habitat contraction and species extinction. As an endemic near-threatened species designated under China's National Class II Protected Wildlife, the tufted deer (Elaphodus cephalophus) lacks comprehensive predictions regarding its future distribution under climate change. This study employs an optimized MaxEnt model integrated with 19 climatic variables and environmental factors (topography, vegetation, and anthropogenic disturbances) to systematically predict the species' potential habitat distribution across China. Through parameter screening of 248 combinations using the Kuenm package, the optimal model configuration achieved exceptional predictive accuracy (AUC = 0.977 ± 0.002). Key findings include: (1) Current suitable habitats span 145.98 × 10⁴ km², predominantly clustered in the Sichuan-Guizhou-Yunnan mountainous regions and the Qinling-Daba-Wuling ranges; (2) Annual precipitation, elevation, slope, temperature annual range, NDVI, and temperature seasonality emerged as the variables that performed best in predicting habitat suitability for tufted deer; (3) Projected habitat areas under future climate scenarios will contract by 21.8%-28.4%, with shrinkage concentrated in eastern low-elevation zones and expansion toward the eastern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau; (4) Habitat centroids exhibit significant westward shifts, reaching 141.8 km under SSP585 (2090s). This study provided theoretical foundations for conserving E. cephalophus genetic resources and climate-adaptive management, emphasizing the urgency to prioritize ecological corridor construction in western Sichuan-southeastern Tibet.