Arctic Sea Route access reshapes global shipping carbon emissions
Pengjun Zhao1,2, Yunlin Li3, Caixia Zhang4
1College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing, China. pengjun.zhao@pku.edu.cn.
Nature Communications
|September 29, 2025
Summary
Arctic ice melt opens the Arctic Sea Route (ASR), increasing global shipping emissions by 8.2% by 2100. Current strategies are insufficient; only a net-zero approach can eliminate ASR-related emissions and protect the Arctic environment.
Area of Science:
- Environmental Science
- Climate Science
- Maritime Logistics
Background:
- Arctic ice melt due to climate change is opening the Arctic Sea Route (ASR).
- The ASR offers shorter global trade routes but poses significant environmental risks.
- Increased navigability necessitates understanding the long-term carbon consequences.
Purpose of the Study:
- To quantify the long-term carbon emissions impact of increased Arctic Sea Route access.
- To evaluate the effectiveness of current and proposed mitigation strategies on Arctic shipping emissions.
- To assess the environmental justice implications of shifting emissions patterns.
Main Methods:
- Utilized a trade-integrated shipping emissions projection (TISEP) model.
- Integrated global trade scenarios, vessel routing data, and climate policy pathways.
- Analyzed emissions impacts under various mitigation strategies.
Main Results:
- Arctic Sea Route use is projected to increase global shipping emissions by 8.2% by 2100.
- Arctic-specific emissions are expected to rise from 0.22% to 2.72%.
- Significant increases in emissions exposure are anticipated for Northeast Asia, Northern Europe, and North America.
Conclusions:
- Existing strategies (IMO 2023, Green Corridors) are inadequate for achieving Arctic emission reduction targets.
- A net-zero strategy with stringent fuel standards and phased implementation is necessary to eliminate ASR-related emissions.
- Urgent, prospective actions are required to mitigate shipping emissions, safeguard the Arctic, and ensure environmental justice.
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