Predicting hematoma growth in spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage: A simplified non-contrast computed tomography...

Intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) comprises 9%-27% of stroke patients. Hematoma expansion (HE) occurs in approximately 20% of patients following ICH, typically within the first 24 hours. HE increases mortality and long-term disability in these patients and is being investigated as a therapeutic target to improve the outcome in these patients by limiting HE. Non-contrast computed tomography (NCCT) has potential in predicting HE, which can identify the individuals at risk.

To evaluate NCCT markers for predicting HE in patients with ICH and to develop a simple, practical grading system for risk stratification.

This prospective observational study evaluated 192 patients with spontaneous ICH who underwent a baseline NCCT within four hours of admission, followed by a follow-up scan after six hours or earlier if there was clinical deterioration. Hematoma volumes and imaging characteristics that predicted HE were evaluated. A simple five-point grading system score was created to predict HE. In this scoring system, five imaging parameters were evaluated, with each parameter assigned a score of either 0 or 1. The parameters included: (1) Baseline hematoma volume ≥ 30 mL vs < 30 mL; (2) Presence or absence of intraventricular hemorrhage; (3) Presence or absence of the island sign; (4) Presence or absence of the black hole sign; and (5) Presence or absence of the swirl sign.

Of the 192 patients studied, HE was seen in 106 (55.2%). The mean baseline hematoma volume was significantly greater among patients in the HE group (44.1 mL) compared to those in the non-HE group (12.2 mL), with a P-value < 0.05. Additionally, imaging biomarkers such as the island sign, swirl sign, and black hole sign were observed with significantly higher frequency in the HE group relative to the non-HE cohort (all P-values < 0.05). The island sign was strongly associated with HE [odds ratio (OR) 13.7; 95% confidence interval (CI): 10.15-16.37; P < 0.001]. Similarly, the black hole sign (OR 9.4; 95%CI: 7.4-11.62; P < 0.001) and the swirl sign (OR 5.2; 95%CI: 3.72-6.53; P < 0.001) emerged as significant predictors of HE. Initial hematoma volume ≥ 30 mL also showed a significant association (OR 1.9; 95%CI: 1.41-2.74; P = 0.039). A five-point predictive scoring model demonstrated a strong positive association between increasing scores and the probability of HE. Specifically, the likelihood of HE corresponding to scores of 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 was 7.4%, 37.5%, 75%, 85%, 93.3%, and 100%, respectively.

The five variables demonstrated statistically significant associations with HE. This simple and practical 5-point prediction score can enable identification of patients at elevated risk of HE based on baseline NCCT findings. This can facilitate timely recognition of high-risk individuals who may benefit from targeted anti-expansion therapy.