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Risk factors and predictive model for pediatric influenza-associated encephalopathy symptoms: a retrospective study

Dongmei Zhang1, Xiaolong Yu1, Dan Sun2

  • 1Intensive Care Unit, Wuhan Children's Hospital (Wuhan Maternal and Child Healthcare Hospital) Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science & Technology, Wuhan, China.

BMC Infectious Diseases
|October 2, 2025
PubMed

Insights

Predicting influenza-associated encephalopathy symptoms (IAES) in children with febrile seizures is vital. This study identified key risk factors and developed a predictive model for early intervention in severe influenza cases.

Area of Science:

  • Pediatric Infectious Diseases
  • Neurology
  • Clinical Prediction Modeling

Background:

  • Influenza-associated encephalopathy symptoms (IAES) pose a significant risk to children with febrile seizures.
  • Early identification of severe IAES cases is critical for timely medical intervention.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To construct a predictive model for IAES in pediatric influenza patients with febrile seizures.
  • To identify independent risk factors associated with the development of IAES.

Main Methods:

  • Retrospective analysis of clinical data from 623 pediatric influenza patients (2020-2025).
  • Comparative study between IAES and Non-IAES groups.
  • Statistical analysis using SPSS and R to identify risk factors and build a prediction model.

Main Results:

  • 55 cases (8.8%) were diagnosed with IAES.
  • Independent risk factors identified: number of convulsions, timing of first convulsion, respiratory rate, procalcitonin, albumin, and CD4+/CD8+ ratio.
  • A clinical risk scoring tool demonstrated good discrimination (AUC=0.926) and calibration (MSE=0.00049).

Conclusions:

  • Key risk factors for IAES include increased convulsions, fever duration before first seizure, elevated respiratory rate, high procalcitonin, low albumin, and reduced CD4+/CD8+ ratio.
  • The developed nomogram model aids clinicians in assessing IAES risk.
  • The model supports early intervention and clinical decision-making for IAES in children.
Abstract

Keywords:
Acute encephalopathy syndromeFebrile seizuresInfluenza

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