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Global Disparities in Premature Mortality.
Omar Karlsson1,2, Dean T Jamison3,4, Gavin Yamey5,6
1Duke University Population Research Institute, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina.
JAMA Health Forum
|October 3, 2025
Summary
Global mortality disparities persist, with Sub-Saharan Africa showing significant progress but still lagging behind the health technology frontier. Unequal access to advancements highlights the need for equitable dissemination of health benefits.
Area of Science:
- Global Health
- Demography
- Health Economics
Background:
- Persistent disparities in global mortality rates indicate uneven progress in living standards and access to life-extending health technologies.
- Previous studies analyzed cross-country mortality inequality but lacked contextualization against a developmental progress frontier.
Purpose of the Study:
- To examine the probability of premature death (PPD) across countries and regions.
- To benchmark national progress by measuring years behind the lowest country-level PPD (the frontier).
Main Methods:
- Cross-sectional study utilizing aggregate data from the 2024 United Nations World Population Prospects and Human Mortality Database.
- Calculated PPD and years behind the frontier for 7 global regions and 30 most populous countries.
- Data analyzed from May to September 2025.
Main Results:
- The global frontier PPD decreased from 57% in 1900 to 12% in 2019.
- In 2019, Sub-Saharan Africa's PPD (52%) corresponded to the 1916 frontier, though it has converged over 40 years since 2000.
- China showed significant convergence, while the US diverged from the frontier. The North Atlantic region was closest to the frontier.
Conclusions:
- Disparities in PPD reflect significant inequalities in access to health technologies and living standards.
- Context-specific obstacles also contribute to these mortality differences.
- Rapid and equitable dissemination of universal health benefits from technological and medical advancements is crucial.
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