Dynamic Networks of Negotiation for International Climate Change Cooperation

The global response to climate change is negotiated through the UNFCCC's Conferences of the Parties (COPs). Initially focused on reducing emissions from developed countries, the UNFCCC has shifted toward broader global responsibility. Despite this, its formal institutions and negotiating blocs remain stable and do not fully explain COP successes or failures. This study examines country affiliations at each COP, which are not evident in public votes or documents. Instead, we analyze high-level segment (HLS) speeches, extracting co-mentions of countries to map dynamic negotiation networks. We use Dynamic Network Logistic Regression (DNR) to model these affiliations, revealing shifting informal allegiances. Findings indicate that negotiation affiliations dissolve over time. The European Union exhibits strong internal homophily, while major countries like China, Russia, the US, and Japan decrease future co-mentions, unlike Germany, which increases them. Additionally, network clustering raises the likelihood of co-mentions, while prior co-mentions (inertia) and past exclusion from co-mentions boost future mentions. This approach captures the evolving structure of international climate negotiations beyond formal blocs.