Chaplains in transition: a net workforce analysis in a southeastern healthcare organization

Workforce forecasting models are important tools for researchers and administrators to identify potential workforce fluctuations and patterns. The present study explored the trends in chaplain employment with a retrospective analysis of existing data in one southeastern hospital system. We examined hiring, attrition, and net workforce growth as comparisons, or rates, of clinical chaplains in the organization. The observed health system saw considerable growth during the study period, acquiring 17 hospitals (2013-2024) and hiring an average of 11 clinical chaplains annually. Of the 129 hires during the study period, 82 clinical chaplains were retained, representing a cumulative group attrition of 36.4%. ARIMA projections estimate modest linear declines in hiring and net workforce growth, accompanied by a slight increase in attrition from 2025 to 2029. Overall, these findings demonstrate the feasibility of this analytic approach to inform staffing strategies and service delivery models for chaplaincy and spiritual care.