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Evaluation of Host-Pathogen Responses and Vaccine Efficacy in Mice
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Lay Understanding of Vaccine Efficacy.

Alison E Butler1,2,3, Gretchen B Chapman1

  • 1Department of Social and Decision Sciences, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA, USA.

Journal of Applied Research in Memory and Cognition
|October 8, 2025
PubMed
Summary

Laypeople often misunderstand vaccine efficacy rates, incorrectly calculating post-vaccination infection risk. Educational tutorials improved understanding of vaccine efficacy calculations and reduced infection rate misinterpretations.

Keywords:
Cognitionhealthjudgmentnumeracyriskvaccination

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Area of Science:

  • Health Communication
  • Behavioral Science
  • Vaccinology

Background:

  • Perceived vaccine efficacy influences vaccination behavior.
  • Lay understanding of vaccine efficacy calculations is poorly understood.
  • Misinterpretations can impact public health messaging.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate laypeople's understanding of vaccine efficacy rates.
  • To identify common errors in processing numerical vaccine efficacy data.
  • To evaluate the effectiveness of tutorial interventions in correcting these errors.

Main Methods:

  • Three experiments involving 3402 participants were conducted.
  • Participants' responses to questions about efficacy and infection rates were analyzed.
  • Tutorial interventions (quantitative and conceptual) were tested.

Main Results:

  • Participants correctly calculated efficacy rates but incorrectly calculated infection rates.
  • Incorrect infection rate calculation assumed post-vaccination risk equals (100% - efficacy rate).
  • Tutorials improved correct efficacy rate calculations and reduced infection rate misinterpretations, especially for high numeracy individuals.

Conclusions:

  • Lay understanding of vaccine efficacy requires improvement.
  • Targeted educational interventions can enhance accurate interpretation of vaccine efficacy data.
  • Intervention effectiveness is influenced by numeracy and response format.